Let This Be A Lesson For Those Who Are Complacent

Brutally similar to local scenery, 2-1/2 years to the next general election, 2 months to party constitutional amendments. Other than that, nothing revolutionizing to win hearts and minds.

Economist: A landslide victory for the DPJ in Japan

The victors have an emotive name for it: seiken kotai, or regime change. It came in brutal fashion on Sunday August 30th when Japan, Asia’s richest democracy, dumped the party that has ruled it for almost all of the last 53 years and gave a huge win to one that until recently had little idea of how it would govern.

In a historic result, unofficial results showed that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), a leftist grouping of ruling-party renegades, social democrats and socialists, was heading for a landslide. It is led by Yukio Hatoyama, a mild-mannered career politician likely to be the next prime minister. He promises a government less beholden to the powerful civil service, wants to temper the free market and is keen to dole out cash to the disadvantaged in the economically stagnant and ageing country. He declined to name a cabinet until he is confirmed as prime minister in a special session of the lower house, or Diet. That may be within the next two weeks.

Jubilant cries of Banzai! echoed around the DPJ’s victorious campaign offices. NHK, the public broadcaster, said the party had won 308 seats in the Diet, with almost all the seats counted, as polls had largely predicted. The DPJ hopes to forge a coalition with two minor parties that would give it a two-thirds majority, enabling it to force through legislation. But the three parties do not see eye to eye on all issues, which means plenty of haggling will be needed. The DPJ already holds the upper house.

For the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) there was no disguising its anguish, as discredited heavyweight after heavyweight fell, often to young, telegenic DPJ novices shrewdly drafted in as giant-killers. Taro Aso, the visibly shaken prime minister, conceded defeat, describing the result as “very severe”. When he dissolved parliament in July to hold the elections, the LDP held 300 seats. NHK’s count showed it had won 119 seats so far, almost the same as the puny number the DPJ held before the elections.

The raw numbers, however dramatic, only partly tell of the upheaval this could mean for Japanese politics. The LDP has had its hands on almost every lever of power for more than half a century; even when it briefly lost office in 1993, it regained it within 11 months because the forces assembled against it fell apart.

During much of its tenure, it held power because it helped deliver rising prosperity to a country that had only recently endured the ignominy of second-world-war defeat and American occupation. After taking office in 1955, it turned Japan into one of America’s firmest cold-war allies.

But as Japan’s economic miracle faded, and the country sank into a deflationary funk in the 1990s, the LDP clung onto power largely thanks to an entrenched system of patronage and lavish use of the pork barrel. It used public funds or access to Japan’s vast pool of private savings to launch public-works projects that for its last two decades in power kept its grass-roots supporters, such as farmers and construction workers, loyal.

None of that spending generated a sustainable recovery, however, nor did reforms by Junichiro Koizumi, a political one-off who revived the LDP’s fortunes during the last election in 2005, but whose followers, known as “Koizumi’s children”, were crushed by the DPJ this time round. Instead Japan has become saddled with a debt projected to rise to twice the country’s ¥497 trillion ($5.3 trillion) GDP, and it remains dangerously dependent on its large exporters. Figures released in the closing days of the campaign showed unemployment, exacerbated by the global financial slump, hit a record 5.7% in July. Deflation has also re-emerged; consumer prices fell 2.2% in July from a year earlier.

The LDP’s failure to improve people’s lives was one of the twin pillars of the DPJ’s successful campaign. The other was the LDP’s complicity with an all-encompassing bureaucracy that has been guilty of staggering incompetence recently, not least by losing millions of personal-pension records in 2007. The public has also been vexed by the practice of rewarding top civil servants with plum jobs at firms they formerly supervised. The DPJ has vowed to stamp out that policy.

But how well it can fulfill its manifesto pledges—repeated with worthy insistence on the campaign trail—will depend on many factors. Firstly, it may need to reach some sort of accommodation with civil-service mandarins, because only a handful of its most senior members have experience at cabinet level. Its spending proposals are largely to be funded by cutting waste from government spending; that is always easier to promise than to deliver.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economy is still poised precariously between recovery and renewed slump. If the recovery fails to materialise, it will not necessarily be the DPJ’s fault. But it will be the first test of its administrative competence in a country that is crying out for good leadership.

Besides naming a cabinet, Mr Hatoyama, who has appeared to flip-flop on sensitive issues such as Japan’s occasionally subordinate relationship with America, is soon likely to have to step onto the world stage. He hopes to travel to New York in September for the UN general assembly, and will probably meet Barack Obama on that trip.

But as he sets out to introduce a new era of political openness and accountability to Japan, he will be dogged by a thorny question that was already being put to him as he cautiously claimed victory on Sunday night. That is the position of Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ’s former leader, who orchestrated this remarkable election victory and is a master manipulator eminently capable of pulling Mr Hatoyama’s strings.

So far, the new leader has ducked the question. But Japan, for all that it will celebrate dealing the LDP a punishment it has long deserved, will want an answer. Otherwise its people may fear they have replaced one dark force with another.

Evaluating our future Deputy Prime Minister (and potentially Malaysia's 7th Prime Minister) Part 2

Chief Minister Dato' Seri Ali Rustam is the next contender to qualify to contest the seat of UMNO Deputy President, subsequently elevating him to the Deputy Prime Minister seat.

He should be given the lime light for putting world-class Malacca on the top spot for tourist attraction in Malaysia and making the state one of the biggest revenue generators for the Federal Government.

A fellow blogger himself, he had urged all Wakil Rakyat to setup blogs to disseminate information more efficiently. Nothing of significant interest in his blog to take note of, besides the normal rhetorics of 'don't question the fatwa' and 'thank you for nominating me for the post of deputy president of UMNO'.

Ali Rustam had urged the People's Progressive Party (PPP), a Barisan Nasional component, to leave the coalition if they were unsatisfied with seat allocation during the election fever this year.

He drew fiery criticisms for suggesting that Shah Rukh Khan deserved a dato'ship for exalting tourism in Malacca. Quoting from one blog, "Nampaknya Majlis Raya-Raja Melayu perlu membuat ketetapan bersama dan peyelarasan dalam kriteria penganugerahan darjah dan bintang kebesaran supaya kualiti, kredebiliti dan reputasi penerima anugerah dapat dipertahankan wibawanya".

"Empat tahun yang lalu, Melaka membuat kontroversi yang sama dengan lambakkan penganugerahan darjah dan bintang kebesaran terbanyak kepada 84 orang penerima walaupun Melaka adalah negeri terkecil selepas Perlis".

2 years ago, DS Ali proposed the extension of ERL to include both Seremban and Malacca on the basis of increased tourist arrivals to the tourist state. He has also requested LRT to be installed in the state. This is to be financed by the savings from the oil subsidies. Not so smart there, considering that KL is in dire need of the funds in the hierarchy of priorities due to its dense and increasing population. Although stats suggest that tourists have increased to 4.6 million in 2006 compared to 4 million in 2004, it doesn't render a strong proposition to build a system just yet. The density of Kuala Lumpur is close to 7,400 residents/km2 compared to Malacca's 430 (not including tourists of course). I don't think not having an LRT system would deter the tourists from visiting a world heritage site.

I do give him credit for setting up Malaysia's first solar panel manufacturing facility. This would augur well for our bid to become more energy sustainable and efficient. The company running the show, Sun Power Manufacturing Malaysia, is a subsidiary of Sun Power Corporation, USA. It will commence operations in August 2009. This will also create close to 4000 jobs.

Credit is also extended for the well-oiled economic prosperity in Malacca resulting from tourism, rubber (RM320M), palm oil (RM300M) & manufacturing. I was not able to verify these numbers and had obtained them from his blog. I'm assuming he writes his own stuff and not getting feedback from aides.

On UMNO reforms, according to him, UMNO will commence online registration in the near future. This is a positive step towards drawing potentials into the party and a clear sign that the party is ready to move on in accordance to technological advancements.

He is not a big fan of debates, which is a downside, in my opinion. Leaders must be able to take up the challenge for healthy debates in order to articulate their views, convictions and opinions. Debating is a fundamental skill that numerous leaders are still struggling with. The idea that debating is a mere political game is unacceptable. US Presidential and Vice presidential candidates take months to prepare for this and the debate between Biden and Palin clearly showed Americans who they were going to vote for (between one who was fluent in foreign policy and one whose vocabulary was limited to 'you betcha'). Of course, the sensitivities here are different, therefore requiring different format, structure or audience if necessary.

Finally, it was not such a good move for Dato' Seri to criticize the Selangor state government over its RM100m pig farm project. He's got one pig farm problem in his back yard, unresolved for scores of years in Pengkalan Balak.

I have yet to hear his stance on a myriad of national education or economic policies, two of the most important workloads for the next deputy prime minister. Managing national policies compared to state administration is analogous to comparing the NBA to coaching collegiate basketball.

The fundamental question is this: desire and democracy put aside, does he make the cut to be the second in command? Unfortunately, the fate of the nation is controlled by a band of no more than 2,500 UMNO delegates. That is scary stuff.

Siapa paling layak?

Young Voters

UMNO and especially the new UMNO Youth Chief will be expected to get things going by the time inauguration is complete. The new task: to woo 2,000,000 new young voters for the next general election. This will be the clincher whether Barisan Nasional remains in power or gets displaced by Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat.

It is widely known that Pakatan Rakyat fronts young leaders in the last general election and their gamble worked as planned (or perhaps by shear luck). Whether it was utter disgust of Barisan Nasional or strong support for Pakatan Rakyat, clearly the young voters heavily influenced by the internet have rejected Barisan Nasional. Even an amateur who made a famous video recording became a Yang Berhormat. BN was nearly wiped out in Wilayah, Setiawangsa was almost lost. I have yet to see massive efforts to embrace the young voters.

The backbone of Barisan Nasional is UMNO. UMNO Youth is effectivley responsible to woo these new voters. Youngsters everywhere are watching the UMNO Youth contest closely. Who becomes the next UMNO Youth Chief and what he does for the rest of the term will strongly determine where those 2 million votes would go to.

1. Young voters are better trained to reason and rationalize facts and figures, whether from mainstream media, internet or other periodicals and books. The main issues they care about are cost of living in the city, crime rate, public transportation network and reinvigorating the local economy. They are not happy when silly explanations given to them. They want hard facts and they expect progress, excellent service and prompt response from YBs. Internal issues should be dealt swiftly and accordingly to avoid Pakatan Rakyat from exploiting it. Dato' Seri Najib must be stern and decisive.

2. The membership process into political parties must be revamped or BN will face a further reduction in support in the next general election. It's always important to increase membership and renew the party with young blood. The party should be an efficient factory to produce future machinery, party workers, leaders and supporters. It's also an effective way to make the bad apples the minority in the party, not the majority. Unfortunately, bright young professionals get exasperated when their membership application take months to process. Some forms are conveniently 'misplaced'. It is unfortunate when UMNO members feel they are threatened when they see more competent people trying to join the party.

3. Pakatan Rakyat will continue to field young professionals and corporate figures in the urban area and attract the young voters to them. Barisan Nasional must front more credible candidates and not re-activate retired veterans. Politicians who have been stagnant and not delivering solid results should be cut loose. Dato' Seri Najib must recognize that the choice of candidate is extremely crucial in the next general election given the extent of the damage in the last one.

4. The more rampant discussion among youngsters is that the depth of quality leadership has seemed to be depleted. The normal comment from youngsters is "tak de orang lain ke??". Even Tan Sri Sanusi Junid had admitted earlier that UMNO has failed to train her youngsters for future transitions (pelapis). Let's emphasize quality here, not quantity. We have heaps of young leaders in UMNO Youth out there but I really don't think the general population of young Malaysian adults look up to them (the good ones are usually unknown to the general public unless you are a keen follower of local politics). Point 2 would address this issue.
Young leaders find it exasperating to be promoted in UMNO as seniority and experience still play a major role for ascension.

5. Rebranding of UMNO is in order, as mentioned earlier by DS Najib. Effective rebranding could only work with more capable faces in UMNO and Barisan Nasional, not those caught with money at airports, can't even speak in English and don't have time to visit their Divisions because they're busy. Rebranding could be done through social programs and sporting events, not just programs to cater for UMNO members.

6. For young people not in urban area, they would be more interested in tertiary education, career exposures and business opportunities. Unemployment is still increasing due to lack of skills. These issues must be addressed. UMNO should organize for career fairs, business forums and create opportunities for young entrepreneurs (not just cronies). Results must be shown.

7. Embracing mat rempits is acceptable but not to glorify them, strictly to indoctrinate discipline and work ethics with job offers as rewards (or a boot camp for delinquents), not to give media publicity. Future program must be carefully thought through and scrutinized to avoid another backfire.

8. Campaigning for SPR registration should commence immediately, not 2 months before the general election.

9. The internet media must not be underestimated again. Issues must be addressed and clarified better. Press secretaries to Ministers must be able to setup blogs and explain issues on behalf of their bosses regularly, not busy looking for projects.

If BN uses the same strategy, it will get the same result. That's inevitable. However, UMNO is a gigantic machinery. It will adhere to traditions and execute the way they've been doing business for the last 60-odd years. Changes will come but not dramatically as we want. We just hope it's not too late.

My earlier notes on young voters:

Extensive work ahead
What can we do

Tahniah Dato' Seri Najib! Now.... the hard part (Part 3)

DSNR also has to crack the whip as Chairman of Barisan Nasional. Component parties should act like partners and cease making statements contradicting the philosophies and agreed stand of the coalition. Every component leader should respect and safeguard each race's rights in the constitution. Stern actions should be taken for those who disobey. Is disciplinary action in order for SAPP and MCA (some UMNO leaders are at fault too)? We'll see. DSNR should also make his stand crystal clear (and he has made a clear position about the NEP). If he's for it, there shouldn't be any more discussion about it, especially from coalition partners. End of story. Crack the whip Dato' Seri, please.

Reforming UMNO and Barisan Nasional is no easy task. It doesn't even come close in the vicinity of a difficult task. It is extremely challenging but not impossible. This is a coalition in need of serious revamping and rebranding after the huge reduction in parliamentary and state seats that BN used to dominate.

On money politics, we all know what all politicians think of it. Now ACA and the UMNO disciplinary board are working together to nip this problem in the bud. However, the systemic problem remains. The number of delegates for any national or division are too small and easily influenced with promises of cash and positions. It's a 'manageable' number of delegates for contenders with serious cash and moolah. Increasing this number by 3-4 folds would help alleviate the problem for now.

This pandemic problem within UMNO is commonplace. The lack of quality members within the party is also obvious. It is widely known that the 'other side' boasts memberships of professionals, business leaders (should not include cronies who get projects easily from their political friends and end up selling them off to the chinese. It's especially true for those with zero knowledge of the business) and corporate figures with definitely better background. No disrespect intended for members who might be offended with this statement, but it's pretty obvious ("ukurlah baju di badan sendiri" (aspiration should match capability)). Clearly, a sudden injection of bodies would create a shock in the system. It has to be done in stages, which has to be guided and monitored by the party President himself.

We need to be realistic as these individuals won't be swayed with a mere RM500 to vote for joe black, for example. We might scorn the amount, but to some people, that's easy money so to speak. Unfortunately, because of the membership process, it takes months to get a form processed (assuming you're not considered a threat to incumbents within the division). A clear turn off for aspiring candidates and potential asset for the party.

Scrapping the quota system and opening up the race for any position could help curb the problem (if TS Muhyiddin wins uncontested this weekend, it should be his first agenda come March 09). Having a debate between contenders is also healthy to discuss issues and create awareness of the candidate's agenda and aim. The settings and audience can be catered for members first before we are ready to open it up publicly.

There is no doubt money is required for campaigning especially for national-level posts, travel expenses, staff salary, 'duit rokok', etcetera, etcetera. Here's what's funny. In the US, candidates conduct fund raising and the money is channelled for campaigning. It's the opposite here. Candidates normally end up forking out his own money most of the time. Perhaps it is time to make fund raising legal within certain threshold and stop making election a 'business' in the party.

Can we also scrap all the singing in meetings (except for the national anthem)?

Part 2

Latest Nomination Figures

Click here for the latest numbers.

Mukhriz - 61; KJ - 38; KT - 28

Zaki sedia hadapi cabaran

Petikan dari Harian Metro

PUTRAJAYA: Persidangan perwakilan Pergerakan Pemuda Umno Bahagian Putrajaya, di Pusat Persidangan Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC), Sabtu ini, bakal menyaksikan pertembungan antara penyandang jawatan Ketua Pemuda yang juga Pegawai Khas kepada Perdana Menteri, Datuk Ahmad Zaki Zahid, dengan Pegawai Khas kepada Menteri Pelajaran, Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz.

Kesediaan Tun Faisal Ismail menentang Ahmad Zaki memang sesuatu yang mengejutkan berikutan beliau baru dilantik sebagai ahli jawatankuasa pergerakan itu April lalu.

Biarpun begitu, Ahmad Zaki berkata, beliau sedia menghadapi cabaran itu kerana apa yang penting baginya ialah ahli Pemuda Umno Putrajaya boleh menilai sendiri kemampuannya sebagai pemimpin mereka sejak empat tahun lalu.

“Selepas dipilih sebagai Ketua Pemuda Umno Putrajaya pada 2004 lalu, saya bertekad untuk menjadikan Pemuda Umno Putrajaya dihormati dan disegani Pemuda Umno bahagian lain,” katanya.

Winds of change in Umno Youth

Analysis
By JOCELINE TAN


The Umno Youth contest has become the race to watch as the underdog candidate has clinched the coveted nomination count to contest while the once mighty are struggling to catch up.

DATUK Mukhriz Mahathir was probably as surprised as many others in Umno to have zoomed ahead of the assumed strongman candidate Khairy Jamaluddin.

By the end of the first weekend round of Umno Youth divisions meetings on Sunday, he had 40 nominations, more than the minimum 38 he needed to contest the Umno Youth leadership.

Getting the requisite nominations is a key psychological milestone and that he got there before Khairy and Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Khir Toyo has been pretty stunning.

Just a week or so ago, he was placed in second or even third place after Khairy and Dr Khir. But it has been a long and dramatic week in politics for Umno and as the new Subang Umno Youth head Harrison Hassan pointed out it, “everything has changed.”

It is clear even at this early stage that the winds of change are blowing through the Youth wing.

Otherwise, how does one explain the way the underdog is now leading the nomination count while the once mighty are struggling to catch up.

Khairy, who is the incumbent deputy Youth chief, has secured 20 nominations so far, Dr Khir 12 and the fourth aspirant Datuk Zahidi Zainul Abidin only one.

Mukhriz’s leading trend is likely to continue this weekend and Khairy should be able to secure the requisite nominations by then.

But the picture is a bit gloomier for Dr Khir although his aides insist he will get there.

He thought he had steady support from the Youth wing in Selangor but he has had to struggle against Mukhriz and Khairy in the state where he had been a two-term Mentri Besar.

The cool reception to Khir in Selangor is also sign of how Umno feels about his role in the loss of this premier state in the general election.

He reckoned he had put the defeat behind him by taking responsibility and resigning as the Selangor Umno chief but it looks like all has not been forgiven.

But the question everyone is asking now is what has gone wrong with the Khairy’s political juggernaut?

Is it simply because his father-in-law is on his last leg as Prime Minister or is it something more complex?

He has campaigned extensively the last few months, he has tremendous access in his capacity as the incumbent deputy Youth leader and he has the funds.

He even has a “war team” comprising of some seasoned faces including a former journalist and a couple of bright, young individuals.

“The change is coming from the bottom. The grassroots are reasserting their voice. They are telling us who they want rather than we telling them who to choose. It’s been the trend after what happened in the general election,” said Harrison.

A total of 72 of the 191 Umno Youth divisions have met so far and the rest will hold their meetings this weekend.

Khairy, who has a stronger standing in the rural divisions, has had a tough time in the urban division meetings where members are more informed and critical.

In Setiawangsa, there were jeers from the floor when Khairy’s name was proposed and few were surprised when Mukhriz won with 53 votes against 29 for Dr Khir and 7 for Khairy.

“The wind for Mukhriz is very powerful this time,” said Zulflida Tahmali, an Umno Youth politician from Setiawangsa.

Khairy had an even tougher time in Johor although he secured three nominations there.

In Tenggara, delegates shouted tak mahu! when his name was proposed.

In Batu Pahat, he got only three votes compared to 95 for Khir and 186 for Mukhriz.

That is the kind of scenario he is facing in some places.

Johor has been outspoken about the party leadership and Khairy’s alleged influence in the present administration.

It is possible he is now feeling the full impact of the party’s discontent.

The last time the Umno Youth leadership was contested was in 1996 and the fight is turning out to be a top ticket match.

Some view it as a proxy fight between Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Others claim it is a mini referendum on the Abdullah administration.

Such metaphorical analogies do not cut much ice with the average Umno Youth member.

But they do realise that Umno is in dire straits and that the Youth wing has lost support among young Malays.

They are looking for a sincere and capable leader who will lead them out of the mess.

But the battle for nominations is just the first stage or a race up the hill. After that comes the race up the mountain and that is the tough one.

Extensive Work Ahead

1. Come March 2009, there will be a long list of to-do items for all newly elected UMNO leaders. The newly elected President of UMNO has a mammoth task to commence reparation of the party and the coalition if it has not begun.

2. The deadline will be the next general election, set to have more than 60% of voters below the age of 40. The young professionals in Wilayah Persekutuan have unanimously rejected Barisan Nasional. Barisan Nasional also lost the wealthiest state in Malaysia, Selangor. Pakatan's biggest advantage was figuring out how to krazy glue a loose coalition and make it work. DSAI played a crucial role to marry both PAS and DAP. This will be their Achilles' Heel, hands down.

3. It might not be half-bad to consider courting PAS. Not only it strengthens the coalition by increasing the number of Malay votes, but it solidifies BN's position in Kedah and Terengganu. Not only that, Kelantan will be under BN's belt for the first time in 23 years come 2013. In the spirit of coalition, a few federal portfolios should be given to PAS.

4. In ensuring strong racial tolerance and integration, the idea of streamlining our education system must be forwarded. The National Service for our kids at age 17 might be an acceptable module for motivational purposes, but would fail miserably if our kids have been exposed to systematic segregation in their early age. The idea of a one-race party system is acceptable but not at this moment when the house is not in order.

5. UMNO must continue to champion the Malay rights as enshrined in the Constitution and guard the tradition of the Malays. Concurrently, UMNO must ensure that the rights of Malaysians are not in jeopardy and not taken for granted.

6. Membership process must be revamped to attract talent into the party. The idea by Gerakan is not quite practical. Online registration of individual parties should be studied and implemented in the best manner possible.

7. Scores of post-mortems were conducted post-election to dissect the cause of the losses in several states. The findings must be executed to ensure a stronger win in the next general election. The Youth Chief and the young ones must play a bigger role to attract the young voters and understand their wants and needs.

8. UMNO and Barisan Nasional must also be prepared for an all-out PR exercise to counter blogs, internet media and video streaming sites. They fumbled for taking this lightly in the last election.

ps: on a different note, I respect Cheras Division Chief's initiative for creating the funds for Azan and in defence of Utusan Melayu. Clearly Pakatan's push for freedom of speech has been negated by this act by one MP.

No. 2 In The Country

The US Vice Presidential Debate kicked off featuring a veteran democrat politician against a one-term Governor whose winks and choice of words ranging from 'you betcha' and 'darn right' might have further disconnected her from middle-class American women. Senator Biden consistently attacked Bush's financial policy and supported the withdrawal of US troops in Iraq, which is costing US tax payers USD 20B a month (btw Halliburton established a Private Military Contractor company and was awarded security contracts in Iraq). Governor Palin lacked substance in her debate and made some false accusations about Obama. She didn't score much but people expected her to be worse. Unexpectedly, she performed well for someone who lacks the 36 years of experience in the form of Biden. Gov Palin's biggest blunder was her shallow understanding of US foreign policy and failed miserably in answering touch US policy questions.

The big question US voters must answer is whether they see Gov Palin fit to be the Commander-In-Chief in case McCain's health declines due to his age? 8 Presidents in the past died in office, 4 of whom due to assasinations (Lincoln, Garfield, Kinley, Kennedy), 4 of whom died due to health (Harrison, Taylor, Harding, FDR).

Back in our beloved Country, Datuk Zahid recently announced his intention to contest for the hot UMNO Deputy President seat. If DS Najib takes over as President, others may follow suit to join Datuk Zahid including Tan Sri Muhammad Md Taib and DS Ali Rustam. TS Muhyiddin has yet to officially announce which seat he is contesting for.

Datuk Zahid might have scored points when he lambasted BAR council about their open forum on Islamic issues. Tan Sri Muhammad Muhd Taib's past history that took place at an Australian airport may discredit his race for the title despite the fact that he has a seat in the current Cabinet. Eventually, each candidate's resources would be a huge factor in affecting voters decision.

We may not have a Vice Presidential debate here but I sure bet it'd be one hell of a debate with topics such as Ketuanan Melayu, race-based politics, oil revenue, UMNO reform, education and many more. Then we can confidently judge the best candidate (assuming we're all delegates).

Meanwhile, Penang Chief Minister requested RM59M for personnel, CCTV installation and other security features. Wow, imagine how many CCTVs he's trying to install on that relatively small island. What's his rational to mobilize 10 GOF platoons (General Operations Force is a subset of the Royal Police trained and tasked for border patrols, maritime security, anti-smuggling operations, guerilla warfare and other general security details during peace time)? Doesn't Johor have the worst crime rate in Malaysia? Is this another way to channel funds from the cancelled Penang City center project?

The Lesser of Two Evils (Update 1)

21/9: DSKT's campaign slogan "Pemuda berani" (Courageous Youth). Datuk Zahidi's slogan "Pemuda untuk semua" (Youth for all).

"It is by far the longest general election in the history of Malaysia" as how a friend of mine eloquently puts it. We have cast our ballots in March and we were hotly reviewing the prospects of members of parliaments jumping ships by Sept 16th (DSAI did not mention what year). It was covered extensively in our favorite dailies. Forums and blogs had a plethora of issues and virtues to comprehend and debate. That day passed and life went on for everyone. DSAI had deceived Malaysians yet again. As if it were an adaptation from V-for-Vendetta, he had a date, the masks, the followers, the anticipation, the anxiety, the thrill......but no bomb. Did the summer camp in Taiwan for agriculture enthusiasts do its trick or it was not meant to be?

Perhaps many were hoping for this day because of the disgusts in UMNO politicians as apparent in the so called alternative media (no longer alternative i suppose!). The stereotype is still saturated in their minds. UMNO is still dubbed as the path for the lust of power and money. Election analysis concluded that many young Malaysians voted against the current regime. The keris and the broom made huge impacts on posters and banners. 5 states and 1 territory decided it was time to change.

The question that is begged to be asked is whether it has made any difference in those 5 states. Have the efficiency and 'transparency' increased in the state managements? Have you felt a sudden burst of change in your constituency that it constitutes an absolute gift from heaven itself? Or are your wakil rakyat embroiled in taking over the country by defection of BN MPs and nitpicking previous administration's foil and follies. Some are definitely rookies with zero experience in politics. Has it been better for you? Come 2013, will you pick an inexperienced rookie with a clean slate or a seasoned politician with questionable financial status? Should the rookie be retained for the next 5 terms, would he eventually morph into that seasoned politician we once despised?

The race for all posts including the UMNO presidency is now the hot topic. Beginning 9th Oct, all 192 divisions will commence their meetings to nominate their candidates of choice from top to bottom. Many have labeled the current PM as weak and ineffective as commander-in-chief, others hail him as the champion of liberty and reforms. There are quarters questioning DS Najib's potential and capabilities if he were to become PM despite his vast experience since the late Tun Razak passed away. A branch in Pekan Division had earlier presented their proposal to the division to nominate DS Najib as numero uno. In the end, it would be up to the delegates to decide. Some may say that delegates do not represent the taste and will of the majority of 3 million strong memberships. Then again, these delegates will be elected, so it would be the wish of the majority, some what.

Let's now analyze the race for Ketua Pemuda Malaysia. Dato' Mukhriz had a good start with his direct comments about the current presidency. Many young professionals outside of UMNO admire his guts and wish for change, thus his motto "Berani Berubah" (to be courageous for change). Added to his resume is his father's direct influence, the political immortal Tun Dr Mahathir. He garnered the highest votes during last election for the Exco seat.

KJ, the next candidate, needs no introduction. As PM's son in law, he is both controversial and aggresive. He is also gaining significant support within the ranks. His oratory skills and confidence level are widely known strengths, backed by a legion of high performing young professionals. His campaign buzz word is "Setiakawan" (Loyalty among friends).

Enter the next candidate, DS Khir Toyo, former Selangor Menteri Besar. Has been in gear 7 in campaigning. For him, it boils down to simple, plain, practical, good ol' Malay politics. He has, by far, the widest experience among the 3 strong candidates. There is no motto for this veteran, just hard campaigning to woo the young delegates. Some loyalists said vote for him if you don't want the other candidates. His Achilles's heel will be the loss of the state to the hands of the Opposition but he is no doubt ready with an answer and it's tough to beat that answer. His blog has breached the 1-million mark. Who said he's not popular?

In national politics 6 months ago, it was about choosing rookie candidates and not BN. In the upcoming UMNO election, it will be the test of choosing the lesser of two evils. I could be wrong.

Oh, forgot to mention the 4th candidate.

UMNO Election (Update 4) and PR's choice for DPM (update 1)

Update 4 (28/7): Tok Pa pulled out from the race.

Update 3 (27/7): Datuk Seri Utama Mohamad Hassan pulled out from the VP race.

Update 2 (25/7): List of UMNO Vice Presidency candidates:

1. DS Hishamuddin Tun Hussein
   
2. DS Syed Hamid Albar (being challenged at Division)
   
3. TS Rahim Tamby Chik
4. DS Khaled Nordin
5. DS Ali Rustam
6. TS Muhammad Muhammad Taib
7. DS Shafie Afdal
8. DS Adnan Yaakob
9. DS Musa Aman
10. TS Mohd Isa Abdul Samad
11. DS Rais Yatim (being challenged at Division by his deputy Datuk Yunus Rahmat, Klawang State Assemblyman)
12. DS Shahidan Kassim
13. Datuk Zahid Hamidi

20/7:

• One branch attempted to open the flood gates by nominating Datuk Seri Najib as UMNO president. One division in Johor might follow suit. Other contests:
• Sembrong, Kubang Pasu (TDM's former division), Balakaban (enjoying pension money after declining deputy minister post), Beaufort, Sipitang have nominated AAB as President and DSNR as Deputy President.
• Gua Musang nominated their chief as candidate for presidency
• Putrajaya plans to also nominate AAB and DSNR this Saturday
  
• D Mukhriz supports DS Hisham's notion that the top two posts should be contested
• PR has officially announced DSAI as their choice for the top seat should PR takes over from BN government. The question is, who is their choice for DPM? PAS will be furious if the composition of the newly formed government does not have at least 60% of Malay YBs after the planned hop in September (now DSAI says the plan has been delayed because of the sodomy case). PAS has already met with their UMNO counterparts to discuss issues regards the Malays and Islam. Will this widen the crack in Pakatan Rakyat?
  

Anwar contesting this time?

After declining to take Permatang Pauh, Lembah Pantai or Bandar Tun Razak, Anwar was window-shopping and hoping that Kuala Kangsar would be vacant due to alleged irregularities during election by BN. After the court over ruled this, now it's Kulim Bandar Baharu. BN candidate claims that YB Zulkifli Nordin (former Royal Military College cadet) did not file his expense claims for during his campaign in 2004. If a by-election is required, would Zulkifli Noordin make way for DSAI?

DSAI also claims that 1 former UMNO MP and 1 division chief have joined PKR. Although he has changed his tune subtlety, we're not sure whether the plan for 16th September is a go. Before he goes down with another court case, why can't he just get the MPs to cross over and form the government now? What's he waiting for? (He did mention that the sodomy case would inevitably delay the process).

Adakah tuduhan LIWAT itu betul?

Minggu ini sememangnya hangat, terutama kepada semua yang ingin tahu adakah ini semua konspirasi seperti tahun 1998 atau tidak. Persoalannya ialah, adakah rakyat akan percaya jika ianya betul? Penyokong2 tentunya akan menuduh kerajaan untuk cuba menjatuhkan penasihat (atau "advisor") itu dengan apa2 cara sekali pun. Bagi saya, biarlah pihak berkuasa menyiasat dan mengkaji tuduhan itu. Konsep berani itu benar penting dan tak payah nak lari lintang pukang sini sana kerana kononnya diugut. Masyarakat umum juga perlu ingat keputusan yang dibuat oleh 2 dari 3 hakim dalam kes penasihat satu dekad dahulu.

Persiapan sedang dibuat untuk mengumpul satu juta rakyat esok di Petaling Jaya untuk memprotes harga minyak yang telah dinaikkan baru2 ini. Terpulang kepada rakyat untuk menghadiri atau tidak. Hak berkumpul dan demonstrasi sememangnya sebahagian dari sistem demokrasi. Kita cuma perlu ingat bahawa setiap tindakan perlu dikawal dan jika dibuat diluar batasan, kita perlu berani menerima akibatnya. Tak payah marah2 tentang harga minyak, bukankah DSAI kata beliau akan jadi PM bulan Sept ini dan akan menurunkan harga minyak?

Begitu juga dengan orang UMNO. Orang UMNO perlu fokus dan mengingatkan diri bahawa sandiwara ini sementara sahaja. Biarlah pihak berkuasa menyiasat. Kita perlu ingat bahawa sokongan dan kepercayaan rakyat semakin kurang. Ekonomi semakin meleset, bekalan makanan seluruh dunia dalam keadaan kritikal kerana kekurangan bekalan, penggunaan tanaman untuk biodiesel dan sebagainya. Nilai mata wang Amerika semakin merosot dan ini akan menjejaskan perdagangan antarabangsa. Harga minyak mungkin akan melonjak ke paras US 200 setong. Jika kerajaan tidak mengambil langkah untuk memantapkan ekonomi, tidak mustahil kita akan kalah dalam PRU-13. Bagi saya, kepimpinan amatlah penting. Kepimpinan BN bermula dari kepimpinan UMNO. Kepimpinan UMNO akan ditentukan oleh perwakilan bahagian ke Perhimpunan Agong. Perwakilan bahagian ditentukan oleh ahli2 UMNO itu sendiri. Buang yang keruh, ambil yang jernih.